Abstract: The Bay of Bengal Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is a regional organisation aimed to kickstart the new round of engagement and partnerships between the BIMSTEC member states as well as the littoral states of the Bay of Bengal region. In the past few years, this region’s strategic significance has increased manifold and gained international attention along with the Indo-Pacific region. There has been greater convergence between BIMSTEC members on broader security understanding that there is a need to develop a maritime security framework amongst the member states to counter the increasing apprehensions related to the security of this region. The paper argues that there is a crucial need for developing a common security framework for the BIMSTEC member nations which has emerged as the pre-requisite condition for building greater regionalism within the organisation. It further discusses the idea that BIMSTEC could emerge as India’s effort to create a regional security architecture. The recent push by the Indian leadership to underline the strategic significance of the larger Indian Ocean region has also boosted the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of the Bay of Bengal region. Further, the paper highlights the geographical positioning and significance of the Bay of Bengal area explaining how it dominates the entire eastern side of the Indian Ocean which is also shaping as a most dynamical region in terms of global sea lanes of communication. All of these aspects make it imperative to understand the emerging apprehensions and concerns related to the security of this region at large.

Introduction

The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is a regional, multilateral organisation to augment economic sustainability, cooperation, and collaboration in the region through shared initiatives clearly reaffirmed in its Charter adopted at Colombo in March 2022.1 Initially, the group envisioned economic cooperation amongst Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, and Thailand—which explains the acronym BIST-EC. However, when Myanmar joined the group in December 1997 this regional grouping system was renamed as BIMST-EC i.e., Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, and Thailand Economic Cooperation. This was further modified after Nepal and Bhutan also became part of this organisation and it eventually became BIMSTEC.2 It connects the regions of South and Southeast Asia with the other Himalayan states and the Bay of Bengal. The primary aim of this regional grouping is to mobilise the scenario for the economic development of this sub-region. Further, BIMSTEC’s aim is also to create inter-regional cooperation between the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member nations.

The Bay of Bengal littoral nations face various security-related issues in terms of aggression, unlawful activities, and degradation of the marine environment. Moreover, increasing Chinese maritime influence in the Indian Ocean region, especially in the Bay of Bengal region has increased the apprehensions of the BIMSTEC states.3 Preservation of the autonomy of sea lanes of communications has become one of the important agendas of these nations.4 Moreover, this region is also rich in hydrocarbons. There has been an enhanced interest by various external players in this region which has pushed this region as a canvas for strategic power play and resource politics. All of these factors make it necessary that the nuances of regional security challenges that are being faced by the BIMSTEC nations, which is the aim of this paper. BIMSTEC’s approach is centred around the principles of sovereign equality, territorial integrity, political independence, non-interference in internal affairs, peaceful co-existence, and mutual benefit. These principles are intended to be followed by all the member nations of BIMSTEC and are in accordance with the Bangkok Declaration signed in 1997 between the heads of government, ministers, and senior officials from various BIMSTEC member countries.5

Significance of BIMSTEC

The importance of BIMSTEC as a regional organisation has risen due to the emergence of geopolitical competition amongst various regional blocs. In contemporary times, the nations continue to assess the present global political environment and form new alliances or partnerships to strengthen their security, trade and investment linkages through comprehensive agreements and understandings. So, due to the rising significance of the Bay of Bengal region, the BIMSTEC nations have the possibility of mutually benefiting as well as contributing to the global economy which is trying to recover from the slowdown due to the Covid- 19 pandemic. BIMSTEC has evolved with a lot of eagerness for regional cooperation among its member nations from both South and Southeast Asian regions, so this organisation is projected to act as a bridge between these two regions. In fact, regional blocs such as BIMSTEC can play a significant role in expanding the economies in the region by enhancing regional trade and investment in strategic domains. Apart from economic and technical hinderances, political barriers also play a critical role in bringing BIMSTEC nations together.6 Such meaningful collaboration among the BIMSTEC nations will also portray this organisation as an important factor at the global level.

In the case of India, BIMSTEC allows it to pursue two significant policies. Firstly, New Delhi’s ‘Act East’ policy helps India connect with Southeast Asian countries. Along with the ASEAN nations, India aspires to work in cooperation on various infrastructure development and connectivity projects. India’s Northeastern region shares borders with four BIMSTEC nations i.e., Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, and Myanmar (Fig 1). Through the development of better connectivity and infrastructure, it could provide an important prospect for India to strengthen its position in the region and simultaneously further mutual benefits with BIMSTEC partners. Secondly, except for India and Bhutan, all other BIMSTEC nations are part of China’s BRI. Southeast Asian region could also be considered as the region where China continues to enhance its influence. In this regard, BIMSTEC provides India with a platform to counter the rising Chinese influence in the South and Southeast Asian region. Furthermore, India can act as a leader and facilitator in developing a roadmap on these critical issues along with the members. Since it has the largest economy in

BIMSTEC, it could engage with like-minded Southeast Asian nations and push for various development projects in the region through mutual agreements.7

Fig 1: BIMSTEC nations

Source: https://carnegieendowment.org/files/CP_325_Xavier_Bay_of_Bengal_INLINE.pdf.

Accessed on July 02, 2023.

Security in the Bay of Bengal region and BIMSTEC Mandate

The Asian maritime scenario is witnessing substantial shifts due to major power competition and geopolitical rivalries. In such a security environment, the Bay of Bengal region is evolving as a critical area for economic and strategic competition. This region is geo-strategically located at the convergence of the Indian and Pacific Oceans and There is a pursuit for the development and construction of new connectivity corridors across this region which may eventually lead to the renewed geoeconomic significance of this region enabling competing and cooperative strategies.8 Due to increasing competition in terms of connectivity initiatives, especially between China and other Indo-Pacific actors, there have been growing apprehensions about the emerging conflicts between nations over natural resources, security of sea lines of communication, or environmental sustainability.

This region is being subjected to a multitude of challenges—both conventional and non-conventional. India being an economically influential nation amongst the BIMSTEC nations, has emerged as the cornerstone of the security architecture in the Bay of Bengal region. So, it becomes imperative that India to become proactive in its engagement with BIMSTEC nations to manage challenges and opportunities. Geographically, the Bay of Bengal region is the source of enormous marine resources along with being a vital hub for energy trade. Therefore, it is the interest of all BIMSTEC nations to come together and work more closely for the sake of prosperity for one and all.9 Furthermore, the proximity of this region to the Malacca Strait has become quite crucial due to the securitisation of the sea lanes of communication. In March 2022, during the virtual summit of BIMSTEC, Prime Minister Modi underlined the need for transforming this region into “a bridge of connectivity, a bridge of prosperity, and a bridge of security.”10 Given India’s huge coastline of 7,500 kilometres, India and the other Bay of Bengal littoral nations have common issues in the maritime domain that can be addressed through intra-regional cooperation.

In terms of non-traditional security threats, this region faces some of the world’s most intense cyclones and storms etc. The increasing temperature of the seas and oceans due to climate change could lead to storms holding extra moisture and cause more destruction. Plus, rainfall unpredictability and rising sea levels add to the flooding, which is especially dangerous for coastal communities. Major coastal cities in India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Thailand with higher populations are at greater risk. Furthermore, the soaring temperatures are already leading to drought-like situations and soil deterioration that can eventually lead to food security risks. While migration of people due to severe changes in climatic conditions has not yet become too drastic in this region, worsening conditions could trigger a mass exodus of people and eventually lead to heightened border tensions.11 BIMSTEC’s recent inclusion of the ‘Security’ domain, combining its previous sectors of ‘Counter Terrorism and Transnational Crime’ (CTTC), ‘Environment and Disaster Management,’ and ‘Energy,’ for the sake of better purpose was a practical change.12

One of the initial and guiding principles of BIMSTEC is “non-interference in internal affairs.” This posture has been promoted by the BIMSTEC Charter, which rather leaves it to the member states to settle their disputes than provide any conflict resolution mechanism. It may be argued that in an evolving security scenario, this self-restraint from getting involved in efforts to ensure the autonomy of SLOCs is one such domain where a gap exists in BIMSTEC’s agenda. This idea is based on the fact that the majority of BIMSTEC member nations are relying on their trade and investment with China. So, there is a possibility that these nations would not be willing to be seen involved in explicit political-military activities that could impact their relations with Beijing. Since any stable region contributes to economic prosperity, the BIMSTEC member nations have also decided to collaborate in countering purely non-traditional security threats. Consequently, the BIMSTEC Charter also states that its primary aim is to preserve peace and stability in the Bay of Bengal region by closely collaborating to combat terrorism, organised criminal networks, as well as natural disasters, climate change, pandemics, and epidemics. This makes BIMSTEC’s mandate specifically focus on issues related to non-traditional security.13

Regional Security Challenges—Traditional and Non-Traditional

India engages with BIMSTEC in crucial sectors like security, connectivity, and climate change. In the 2022 summit Prime Minister Modi underscored the significance of enhanced integration of BIMSTEC member states.14 Furthermore, India conducts and participates in various joint, multi-lateral exercises with other BIMSTEC countries from time to time such as “Panex 21”—which was the Humanitarian Aid and Disaster Relief (HADR) Exercise. Delegates from all BIMSTEC member countries participated in this exercise either physically or virtually.15 Such joint HADR exercises should be done regularly so that the institutional systems and personnel involved work together smoothly and in a coordinated fashion in times of disaster. At present, there are some new challenges that BIMSTEC faces which include epidemics like the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. These issues have exacerbated the challenges related to the disruption of the maritime supply chains, global economic recession and its outcome, debt accumulation, inflation, energy security, and food insecurity. The growing challenge of climate change has further added to these apprehensions. Considering that many of these challenges are transnational in nature, it becomes clearly beneficial that constructive regional partnerships are configured between nations to help in promoting issue-based “mini-lateral” collaboration.16 In various BIMSTEC summits the importance of close cooperation between South Asian and SE Asian countries to maintain peace and stability in the region has also been emphasised.

Another major area of interest for the BIMSTEC is the issue of climate change. BIMSTEC member states recently held a special meeting of its Environment Ministers in Bangkok during which they agreed to formulate a national climate action plan aimed at reducing emissions and promoting clean energy in the region. Such efforts would help the region to achieve its climate-related goals and maintain a balance between development and environmental protection. In terms of climate change, Bhutan has chosen carbon neutrality by 2025 or earlier as a key strategy in its development pathway for combating the adverse effects of climate change. As a country that relies heavily on hydropower, Bhutan has decided to enhance its capacity to store additional water in its rivers and run more water turbines. By doing so, it will increase its electricity output and reduce its carbon footprint significantly.17 In addition, BIMSTEC countries are also facing several challenges that have ramifications for the region. Energy and food insecurity continue to haunt many of the member states. Nepal’s economy is facing recession and Sri Lanka is slowly getting back on its feet after its serious economic and humanitarian crisis. Both these nations are still witnessing the weakening of their foreign exchange reserves, apart from food and fuel inflation, and a shortage of essential commodities. In another instance, to preserve its dwindling forex reserves, Bangladesh has entreated the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a precautionary loan. Similarly, the economy and security situation of Myanmar is also problematic. To add to this, the Rohingya issue has also created complications in Bangladesh-Myanmar relations. To traverse through these constant challenges, and to realise the broader objectives of the BIMSTEC nations in the Indo-Pacific region, regional integration and institutionalisation have become paramount. BIMSTEC is, thus, becoming a foreign policy priority for its member states.18

In the case of India, BIMSTEC remains at the juncture of its ‘Neighbourhood First’ and ‘Act East Policy.’ So, one of the major benefits for India can be the probability of economic rewards resulting from enhanced regional connectivity. Being the lead country for the Security Sector within the BIMSTEC, India coordinates all activities related to enhancing security cooperation within the region and with other international organisations such as the United Nations (UN) and the ASEAN. The Security Sector consists of three sub-sectors i.e., Counter Terrorism & Transnational Crime (CTTC), Disaster Management, and Energy. The projected aim of BIMSTEC during its establishment in 1997 was peaceful and progressive development in the region. Subsequently, the leaders of all BIMSTEC nations categorised countering non-traditional security threats such as organised crime or terrorism as decisive factors for promoting sustainable growth and maintaining peace in the region. This led to the creation of Counter Terrorism and Transnational Crime (CTTC) Joint Working Group which has become a priority sector of the BIMSTEC organisation. It was further added to its mandate in 2005.19 The progress achieved in this sector is significant and a substantial contribution to the security of the region in combating terrorism and other transnational crimes was also initiated. It can be said that the focus of this sector is to primarily address trans-border terrorism and other transnational criminal activities in the region along with providing mutual legal assistance to combat trans-border crime. The governments of BIMSTEC member countries also recognise the need to enhance cooperation and coordination between law enforcement and intelligence agencies in various BIMSTEC countries to prevent trans-border crime and terrorism and also share best practices in this field. In the context of preventing trans-border crime and promoting stability in the South Asian region, there is a rising need for an effective intelligence-sharing mechanism to closely monitor trans-border criminal movement and share relevant information with law enforcement agencies of other countries in the region. In this regard, BIMSTEC has institutionalised information-sharing mechanisms by establishing a Virtual Intelligence Cell (VIC) for trans-border crime in 2008 and by drafting a Memorandum of Understanding. Similarly, India and Sri Lanka have also launched joint counter-terrorist operations in various parts of their respective territories to prevent cross-border terror threats. India is seeing increasing linkages between the international criminal networks involved in various economic crimes like drug trafficking and money laundering with the Transnational Organised Crime Groups which are expanding their operations in South Asia to exploit the region's vulnerable socio-political environment. Cybersecurity is also emerging as an important domain of cooperation within the ambit of security. The BIMSTEC Expert Group has articulated tactics to deal with cyber security challenges in this region. The key aim of this Expert Group is to put together a plan of action that will emphasise coordination and collaboration amongst the BIMSTEC member states. The idea is to strengthen the cyber security infrastructure. The cooperation amongst member states will include appropriate procedures for the mechanism for exchanges of information in terms of cyber security, safety and security of critical information infrastructure, cyber incident response, and international developments related to cyber norms.

External Players in the Bay of Bengal Region—Emerging Security Challenges

One of the significant aspects of the current and likely geopolitics of the Bay of Bengal region is the advent of new players in this region. The growing prominence of China and its increasing maritime aspirations has made this region significant in Beijing’s domain of interest. For China, the Bay of Bengal region has become a vital area in terms of its economic potential as well as an alternate option to its Malacca dilemma.20 An alternative for Beijing is linking its SLOCs in the Indian Ocean region through Myanmar and the Bay of Bengal. So, the competition in the Bay of Bengal region is not restricted to collaborating on defence and security issues but is also related to other commercial projects in this region. Some of Beijing’s initiatives in Myanmar include pipelines linking Myanmar’s west coast and Maday island with China’s Yunnan province which would lessen Beijing’s dependency on the Malacca Strait by reducing its logistical time from Africa and West Asia to China by 700 miles or by 30 percent. Additionally, China is also developing Special Economic Zones (SEZ) which also involve ports and industrial zones.21 Beijing is also investing in commercial projects in other littoral nations such as Bangladesh and Sri Lanka including many land connectivity projects. However, India’s lack of ability to provide economic support in various development projects to these nations has provided China with an opportunity to emerge as a favourable alternative.22 In particular, analysts have observed that BIMSTEC faces significant challenges due to a lack of adequate human and financial resources. To address this, India must allocate more substantial resources and introduce new initiatives. By doing so, India can create a pro-India momentum within BIMSTEC, effectively countering China's strategic efforts to encircle New Delhi. It can be argued that without India’s increased commitment, BIMSTEC may struggle to achieve its full potential and could become susceptible to external influences, particularly from China.23

Another important factor in the Bay of Bengal region is Japan. Conventionally, Japan has continued to be the major economic development partner for many South Asian nations. However, Japan is also apprehensive about enhancing Chinese influence beyond the South China Sea. Japan’s “The Bay of Bengal Industrial Growth Belt Initiative (BIG-B)” aims to influence Bangladesh’s position as the land and sea bridge connecting South and Southeast Asia focussing on three sectors i.e., energy and power, transport, and climate change.24 The Bay of Bengal, however, is not a region with unique maritime features that play a major role in Europe’s strategic calculus. The Bay of Bengal region was once again linked by European powers to global markets as had happened in ancient and pre-medieval India. In contemporary times, with the emergence of the Indo-Pacific region as a unified and geopolitically active space, Europe’s interests in the region are more focused on trade, connectivity, and maritime security. From being a former colonial power in the region, France is considered more of a resident power of the Indo-Pacific region, thus positioning its strategic aspirations and calculations with the geographical span of the Indo-Pacific and the Bay of Bengal region. So, it becomes necessary to chart out possibilities and domains that can be significant in the merging of interests between India and its European partners in this region. It can also be said that following the increased focus on trade and connectivity in the Indo-Pacific region, European players are likely to move their focus towards the Bay of Bengal as they deepen their engagements with other littoral nations. This would, in turn, require the European actors to underline maritime security in the Bay of Bengal region, which could result in the integration of their interests with India.25 With India willing to secure the SLOCs in the Bay of Bengal region, greater involvement of European players will help the BIMSTEC member states to develop this region as a key theatre in enabling Europe’s trade and connectivity. Among European nations, India arguably has a strong synergy with France in the Indo-Pacific region. This was demonstrated in 2021 when India made its debut in the La Perouse exercise, focusing on maritime security in the Bay of Bengal. This French-led naval exercise involved all four Quad countries, showcasing their ability to conduct complex and advanced naval operations with high levels of coordination and interoperability. Additionally, the 2023 La Perouse exercise saw the inclusion of the UK in the Bay of Bengal region.26

The quest for influence in the Bay of Bengal region is challenging existing security architectures there. Due to geopolitical shifts, there emerged the need for exploring new opportunities to reinforce existing policies and processes along with forging new cooperation between Bay of Bengal littorals. India is playing a vital role in establishing a Bay of Bengal community to address and cooperatively help alleviate the concerns and challenges of the littorals. Through this mechanism, India hopes to build an approach that will largely enhance its existing relations with the littoral nations, revitalise regional associations, and look forward to creating new areas of cooperation of mutual interest. However, apart from bilateral partnerships, this region significantly features in China’s Maritime Silk Road (MSR) which is part of China’s larger BRI plans. Competing infrastructure development in terms of corridors, highways and other infrastructure in the Bay of Bengal region has led to newer forms of geopolitical contestation in the Bay of Bengal with renewed apprehensions that such contestations could lead to arms races between the militaries of both India and China with these being the arms/equipment suppliers to other littoral nations of the Bay.

New Delhi aspires to play a fundamental role by encouraging greater cooperation and mutual development amongst the littorals of this region. India is the larger security provider in the Bay of Bengal region to the extent that it regularly patrols and monitors the SLOCs in the Bay. India’s Eastern Naval Command is located in the Bay of Bengal, thereby enhancing the securitisation and significance of this region in terms of its maritime strategy. In the maritime domain, India frequently conducts coordinated patrols with Myanmar, Thailand, and Indonesia in a way that mutually benefits all littoral nations. India’s revised maritime strategy (2015) has prioritised MDA in its global maritime security strategy with its larger resources for surveillance using ships, aircraft as well as satellites and with agreements to share such information though participative fusion centres. India presently has White Shipping agreements with Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka. Also, India is supporting nations like Thailand and Myanmar to set up an advanced navigation system and with radar and sonar equipment for improved maritime surveillance capabilities.27

Conclusion

For BIMSTEC to become an effective multilateral regional organisation, its recent plans for strengthening institutional mechanisms are a welcome initiative; however, the way to achieving success remains long and arduous. To be successful in all its initiatives related to regional security, BIMSTEC must become more comprehensive in its mechanisms, through the contribution of different stakeholders and regional actors. Furthermore, to prevent domestic issues of member states from impeding its progress, BIMSTEC could plan a dispute-resolution mechanism, which runs on the principles of discussion and agreement. There are aims and aspirations for BIMSTEC to achieve what it aspires to in the Bay of Bengal region through more inter-state deliberations, prompt decisions, and effective policy implementations.

For India, it would be advantageous if there were possible options and outcomes for developing the Bay of Bengal community through a collective approach that addresses the emerging regional challenges by enhancing cooperation in mutually beneficial areas. One of the important points of consideration for the Bay of Bengal littorals could be burden sharing by pooling their respective resources to create a balanced approach for a new maritime security architecture in this geopolitically significant region. This leads to the need to develop BIMSTEC as an important and strong regional organisation to counter emerging challenges and formulate new ways for member states to collaborate. These benefits in turn will enhance the maritime capacities, presence and value of the BIMSTEC nations across the Indo-Pacific region. So, the littoral nations of the Bay of Bengal region must strive towards exploring new domains of cooperation, newer concepts, and ideas in the maritime environment, which is changing economically, geopolitically, and environmentally. There is great interest within the Bay of Bengal littorals to strengthen relationships across the region, even if there are some bilateral issues. In this regard, India must adopt new approaches and make changes in its Indian Ocean policy which can revise its stance and strategies both in New Delhi and the littoral nations’ favour. It must work towards developing a feasible collaborative environment utilising the advantageous friendly navies that are willing to support New Delhi’s role in the larger Bay of Bengal region.

Endnotes

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